The threat of an Article 50 extension is causing anxiety for some sincere and committed Brexiteers. Some say they should back Theresa May’s deal to “get Brexit over the line”.
But the deal won’t deliver Brexit. Worse than that, it’ll lock us in to not delivering Brexit for many years to come.
If the deal goes through, the next day we will not have left the EU in anything but name. For at least 21 months of “transition” – extendable up to four years – we will have to obey the EU’s laws and rules, and be subject to the Commission and the ECJ as now. The big difference is that we will no longer have a vote or voice in the EU institutions. So no vote or veto against EU law changes which damage the City, or against the Commission’s use of State Aid controls to suppress our competitiveness.
The Brexit process will not be “over”, or “done and dusted” by signing the deal. Those 21 months – or longer – will be filled with the turmoil of ongoing negotiations about our future relationship. We will be negotiating against a real “cliff edge” at the end of the transition – unlike the largely mythical and Project Fear 3.0 “cliff edge” we face now. If we do not submit to the detailed terms offered by the EU for our long-term relationship, we will automatically fall over the cliff edge into the backstop Protocol.
The threat of this happening will put huge negotiating power – blackmail power – into the EU’s hands, since the backstop locks us out of having an independent trade policy and divides the United Kingdom.
Some people say the negotiations are like a game of football where we have done badly in the first half. They hope maybe we can do better in the second half under a new captain. But these negotiations are more like a game of chess: our current leadership has sacrificed all the major pieces and left the remaining pieces in positions where check-mate is inevitable in a few moves. The most competent and Brexit-committed future Prime Minister could not magically get us out of that situation.
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