15 December 2017
MAJOR banks have drastically scaled back threats to shift jobs to the Continent ahead of Brexit, and more British businesses are exporting, figures showed yesterday in a double dose of economic cheer.
Research indicated that predictions Brexit would fuel a swift and massive jobs exodus from the City of London will not translate into reality.
Banks are still planning intensively for potential changes in their operations after Brexit in March 2019 but now expect to move far fewer jobs from London in the run-up to exit day and immediately afterwards.
Professor Patrick Minford, chairman of the pro-Brexit Economists for Free Trade, said: “We welcome this news that we always expected and note that it tallies with our estimates of the extent of passporting [which gives the City access to the single market] and the need to ‘work around’ any new obstacles.
“It is also consistent with all our research on the City: that it will prosper mightily under Brexit due to better – home-based – regulation, lower input costs as prices come down in the rest of the economy, and its existing huge strengths as the number world financial centre which means it can sell as much as it likes anywhere in the world.”
Analysis by the Financial Times newspaper based on interviews with financial institutions concluded that the big international banks were set to move fewer than 4,600 jobs from London in preparation for Brexit.
That would be just 6 per cent of their London workforce and is far below consultants’ forecasts of more than 10,000 on day one of Brexit.
Prof Minford said this represented just 0.6 per cent of London’s 700,000 financial sector staff, including those outside banks.
“Meanwhile, hiring into London finance is rising at around 3 per cent a year and has gone above its pre-crisis peak,” he added.
The research showed as few as 350 jobs may leave Deutsche Bank’s London HQ by April 2019, compared to its previous warnings of up to 4,000.
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