BREXIT-backing and leading economic Roger Bootle has blasted experts and institutes publishing “biased” reports on the future of the UK after March 2019 as he advised not to seek guidance from “losers” as they “will shout the loudest”.
The study, focused on the future UK-EU relationship, warned Britain should prepare for “a worst-case scenario” should the UK leave the bloc without a deal.
In an op-ed published by The Daily Telegraph, Mr Bootle stated the report was “yet another tendentious exercise in producing a biased answer” to what will happen after Brexit.
This study, he said, follows the footsteps of “Project Fear” undertaken by the HM Treasury in 2016 and comes to the same, apocalyptic conclusions.
But, he added, the fact that different reports carry similar answers doesn’t make them correct.
Mr Bootle said: “Everything depends upon how the models are structured and what assumptions are fed into them.
“Thankfully, we do have at least one model that is different from the wodge of group think models so beloved of the economics establishment.
“The model developed by Prof Patrick Minford and used in the work of the group called Economists for Free Trade, , of which I am a member, comes up with positive economic effects from Brexit.”
The House of Commons committee’s study forecasted small gains from a trade deal with the US, assumed high costs from the imposition of non-tariffs barriers by the EU and gave for granted that the UK will continue to impose the EU’s Common External Tariff on imports from the world as it does now.
Mr Bootle said: “Yet some of the greatest gains from leaving the EU are to be gleaned from something that we can ourselves achieve without needing anyone else’s agreement – namely the dropping of tariffs on imports from the rest of the world.”
The economist, who is chairman of Capital Economics, an independent group providing macroeconomic research and analyses, pointed out that pessimist reports are highlighting the immediate consequences of Brexit.
He wrote: “The losses are likely to be more immediate, as existing relationships are rendered less valuable and it takes time for the system to adapt to the new situation.”
Mr Bootle believes that the right answers on Brexit and the future of the UK after March 2019 won’t be found in similar reports.
He added: “Accordingly, the losers will shout loudest.
“But this does not mean that there are more losers than gainers nor that, once we have made our adjustments to the new world, our total losses will outweigh our total gains.
“To get the right answers on Brexit we should not be listening to those who shout loudest or model most, but rather to the largely unvoiced long-term interests of the British people, including in their role as consumers.”
Warning that economic models are unlikely to produce clear conclusions, he added that fast-changing technology will soon change the economy as we know it.
He added: “Making sure that the UK manages to adapt well to these changes will be the most important determinant of our future prosperity.
“We are most likely to succeed if we are the masters of our own destiny.”