A GROUP of leading economists has revealed that civil servants used the wrong data for a Brexit impact study with the result that it suggested leaving the EU would damage the economy.
A detailed investigation by Economists for Free Trade has shown that when Government policy on Brexit and its key objectives are used then the British economy will in fact grow by between two and four per cent better than if the UK had stayed in the EU.
The Alternative Brexit Impact Assessment has now been passed on to Cabinet ministers to inform the crucial discussion of the Brexit sub-committee tomorrow.
It also reveals that a “no deal” scenario gives Britain a £651billion boost while the EU would lose £507billion.
The discredited Government impact study was branded “Project Fear 2” after it was leaked to a pro-Remain website earlier this month and described as “flawed” by Brexit minister Steve Baker.
It led to claims that Treasury civil servants are deliberately trying to force ministers to accept staying under Brussels rule in the EU‘s customs union.
Respected The leak appeared to be timed to coincide with a push by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his Remainer allies in Parliament to pressure Britain to stay under Brussels rule in the single market and customs union, giving up the right to take control over immigration and trade.
Former Conservative leader and prominent Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith said: “This new study by some of our most respected economists, who have been right in the past on key issues such as the euro and the immediate effects of Brexit, deserves to be taken very seriously.
“It suggests that we should all be highly sceptical of Project Fear Mark 2 – the Treasury-led operation by Whitehall officials to discredit Brexit and browbeat ministers into the softest of departures from the EU. “It shows that far from depressing UK economic growth in the years to come, escaping from the EU will boost domestic economic growth and raise living standards right across the country, particularly for the poorest.” The study of the Treasury’s original assessment has been carried out by Margaret thatcher’s former adviser Professor Patrick Minford; Boris Johnson’s former economic adviser Dr Gerard Lyons; Julian Jessop, Chief Economist at the Institute of Economic Affairs; and Roger Bootle, the founder and chairman of Capital Economics, one of the largest macro-economic consultancies in the world.
The leaked Government document claimed that growth would be eight per cent lower as a result of leaving the EU without a deal, with staying in the customs union and single market “a best case scenario” but still below expected growth rates.
This led to a claim that each British household would be £930 worse off as a result of Brexit.
The Economists for Free Trade report notes: “It has become evident that officials in all departments relevant to Brexit have been tasked by officials at No 10 to brief their ministers with PowerPoint presentations on the dire implications of this report.”
To read the Daily Express’s report in full, click here.