BRITAIN’S economy could actually see a four per cent hike if Theresa May secures all her Brexit aims – in the face of gloomy government forecasts.
Using the a similar economic model behind controversial leaked Whitehall forecasts, pro-Brexit Economists for Free Trade group say the PM’s goals actually point to growth over 15 years.
They say that if actual government policy is modelled – rather than deals other countries have with the EU – then it leads to good news.
But the official sums said a doom and gloom slump comes whatever happens.
And they have briefed Cabinet and No10 on their findings ahead of a crunch Brexit showdown on Thursday.
Their “Alternative Brexit Economic Analysis” hits back at Whitehall analysis leaked leaked to Buzzfeed earlier this month.
It forecasts that a good Brexit trade deal will actually boost the country’s economy by 2-4 per cent, in contrast with the official models that saw an 8 per cent hit to gross domestic product.
And it says: “If the Government’s policy – as declared at Lancaster House – is fed into the new Whitehall model, it produces positive outcomes for Brexit that are essentially the same as those of the models of other independent economists.”
Leading Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith backed the report, declaring: “we should all be highly sceptical of Project Fear Mark 2 – the Treasury-led operation by Whitehall officials to discredit Brexit and browbeat ministers into the softest of departures from the EU.
“This new study by some of our most respected economists, who have been right in the past on key issues such as the euro and the immediate effects of Brexit, deserves to be taken very seriously.
“It shows that far from depressing UK economic growth in the years to come, escaping from the EU will boost domestic economic growth and raise living standards right across the country, particularly for the poorest.”