The Telegraph: 2018 could have been worse but beware the gathering storm

With 2018 drawing to a close, it is appropriate to assess the year just past before I turn my thoughts to the new year in Monday’s column.

Let’s begin by marking my own performance. My forecasts have been reasonably good, although not outstanding. I correctly anticipated strong growth in America, accompanied by further rises in interest rates. I also anticipated continued pretty good growth in the eurozone and I thought that China would slow.

I correctly anticipated some major market events although, as always, I didn’t get the exact magnitude or timing right. On the world scene, oil prices have been a major, but changing, influence. In August they reached a peak of $85 a barrel.

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