The Telegraph: Letters – Brexit forecasts

SIR – A number of us wrote to the Chancellor on October 14, requesting publication in full of the Government’s Brexit model. Subsequently, Open Europe published forecasts which, like work from Economists for Free Trade, are more positive than the Treasury analysis.

These three forecasts provide a case study in why it is so important to have an open debate on the Government’s methods and assumptions in good time, well before any parliamentary vote on Brexit. As the Chancellor has acknowledged, the critical factor explaining differences in such forecasts is the underlying assumptions.

The analysis from Open Europe is known to rely on the standard Global Trade Analysis Project model, and Economists for Free Trade on a similar Computable General Equilibrium model. The Government is using a modified GTAP model. We are therefore also concerned to understand how any modifications to GTAP have affected results.

Following MP Sheryll Murray’s opening question at Prime Minister’s Questions on October 17, we are again calling on the Chancellor to publish immediately, in full detail, the cross-Whitehall Brexit analysis, and the underlying models and assumptions, so that experts from all sides can inform public debate.


Steve Baker MP

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP

Sir Bill Cash MP

Iain Duncan Smith MP

Zac Goldsmith MP

Bob Blackman MP

Priti Patel MP

Crispin Blunt MP

Conor Burns MP

Simon Clarke MP

Nadine Dorries MP

Charlie Elphicke MP

John Redwood MP

Anne Marie Morris MP

Nigel Evans MP

Jonathan Lord MP

James Gray MP

Chris Green MP

Bernard Jenkin MP

Andrea Jenkyns MP

Stephen Kerr MP

Andrew Bridgen MP

David Jones MP

Mark Francois MP

Marcus Fysh MP

Pauline Latham MP

Andrew Lewer MP

Lord Lilley

Tim Loughton MP

Craig Mackinlay MP

Sheryll Murray MP

Andrew Rosindell MP

Ross Thomson MP

Lee Rowley MP

William Wragg MP

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