Economists for Free Trade responds to the pessimistic leaked impact report

Commenting on the leaked Brexit impact report, Professor Patrick Minford, Chairman of the Economists for Free Trade said:

“The Treasury, together with any others involved in this report, have clearly used the same discredited methods that it used to produce Project Fear. Because of this, their estimates should be disregarded.

“They are relying on data correlations and as correlation does not reveal causation their calculations of the costs of Brexit are wild and misleading. If they had used the underlying gravity model they claimed they were using, they would have found that on the Government’s own policy assumptions Brexit would deliver strongly positive results for the economy. 

“The Treasury’s forecasting analysis has been abysmal. Largely reflecting a very similar long term gloomy report on trade effects they forecast in the short term a bad recession with much higher unemployment.

“In reality, unemployment has fallen, employment has risen and the growth in the economy has continued around 2%.

“Until the Treasury correct their modelling approach, their estimates of Brexit effects will continue to be badly flawed and totally misleading.”


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